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NBA Consensus Betting Explained. With Examples

Author: americangambler | Last Updated: February 19, 2021

When it comes to life, are you a go with the flow kind of person, or do you prefer to go against the grain and not run with the traffic? In the betting world, the latter instinct is known as fading the public. 

Now, thanks to NBA consensus betting, bettors can find out which way the public is leaning on every game, and then determine whether to follow the pattern, or be a trendsetter.

All of the data comes directly from online sports betting sites in the USA

How Consensus Betting Works

Betting lines for every NBA game that night are posted early in the day. Next to each competing team, the percentage of how much money is being wagered on that team is revealed. The opening point spread on the game is displayed and next to it, the current line, revealing how wagering on the game has impacted the spread.

For example, a recent game saw the Chicago Bulls traveling to Philadelphia to face the 76ers. The opening line was Philadelphia -9. However, 44 percent of all money bet was backing the visiting Bulls. Obviously, the public was of the belief that nine points was too much to lay on Philly. As a result of the NBA consensus, the line had dropped to Sixers -8.

In another game, the visiting Phoenix Suns were -3.5 at the New Orleans Pelicans. In this instance, the public was all over the home team. Of all money bet, 56 percent was taking New Orleans and the 3.5 points. This caused the line to shorten to Pelicans +2.5. There was also 75 percent of moneyline action on New Orleans at +137 that caused the line in the Pelicans to shorten to +114.

Why Does It Matter?

It’s always good to know which way the wind is blowing before venturing outside. You’ll be taking a similar approach prior to wagering on a basketball game by utilizing the information provided by the NBA consensus.

It enables you to assess the market on each game before determining whether you want a piece of the action. And the data enables you to see which way the public is leaning. Then you can determine whether to follow the crowd, or venture down the path of the minority.

Should You Follow The Public Betting Patterns?

Sometimes yes, most times no. If the public was always right, then betting on sports wouldn’t be a multi-trillion dollar business for the online sportsbooks. Sportsbooks are correct far more often than the times when the public gets it right. 

The public money for the most part consists of casual bettors. Often, they bet with their heart, not their head. They back favorites more than underdogs, and they sometimes bet on their favorite team, even when all logic suggests it’s a hopeless pursuit.

Going the contrarian route, known as fading the public, is a betting strategy employed by some players. Ultimately, though, that’s your call. The NBA consensus data provides the information. How you opt to interpret, or make a play off that info, is entirely up to you.