2021 Kentucky Derby Betting Sites, Horses & Previews

The Kentucky Derby seems to have barely skipped a beat a year after it was unceremoniously uprooted.

Get this year's Kentucky Derby Betting guide, with the latest odds, predictions and exclusive bonus offers.

The 147^th running of the world’s most famous horse race is back on its rightful roost on the first Saturday in May 2021, a year after being booted to September by the COVID-19 pandemic and then run with no fans present.

And with a full field of 20 horses expected for the 1 ¼-mile race for 3-year-olds, gamblers around the world will again pour money into the huge betting pools. Many will miss, but a relative few will likely experience the kind of scores that just aren’t achievable in other races.

AmericanGambler.com will provide a detailed Kentucky Derby 2021 handicap, suggested wagers, predictions and information on riding assignments, horses, betting odds and much more in the week before the race. Be sure to check back ahead of the event that is deservedly known as “the fastest two minutes in sports.”

Kentucky Derby 2021 Predictions & Picks

You can count on it as surely as you can predict that mint juleps will flow among the fans in the grandstand and the infield. Churchill Downs says it is operating under the assumption that it will be able to fill 40 percent to 50 percent of its reserved seats as well as a “limited number” of general admission tickets for the infield.  

How to watch the Derby

Fear not if you aren’t one of them. The Derby is one of the most widely disseminated races in the world.

NBC Sports will broadcast it in the U.S., with coverage of the undercard on the NBC Sports Network 12:30 to 2:30 p.m. ET, shifting to NBC from 2:30 to 7:30. Post time for the Run for the Roses is set for 6:57 p.m. ET.

Nor is it too hard to get a bet down if you’re a resident of the 37 states that allow parimutuel wagering or have an online wagering account, whether sanctioned or not.  Betting on the race and the stakes-studded undercard also will be available at almost every track and simulcast site and on online advance deposit wagering sites.

The lineup of 20 horses is still being finalized, but we’re beginning to get a decent sense of the field.  See below for a chart of the top speed figures earned by each likely starter. And check back in the week before the race to get our detailed final handicap with post position, pace scenario and individual matchups factored in.

In the meantime, here are some early observations to help you get your head in the game.

Kentucky Derby Horses 2021

• Essential Quality will be the post time favorite, barring some great misfortune descending on his stall. The 2-year-old Eclipse champion has yet to lose in five starts, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and is likely to close at 5-2 or thereabouts, the final half-point attributable to the fact that trainer Brad Cox is a Louisville native.

• After that it gets a little murky. I think Known Agenda could end up as the second choice, maybe as low as 4-1
• With Rock Your World right in there around 5-1.
• Concert Tour, Highly Motivated, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit and Super Stock also seem likely to draw considerable support.

There also are horses outside that inner circle that you wouldn’t want to throw out, so we’re definitely taking about the wide-open sort of Derby where you can take some shots and potentially make a big score.

More TK, as they used to say in the wire service days.

• It’s not really possible to do a detailed pace analysis at this point, but at first blush it sure looks like the early fractions will be quick, with Caddo River, Concert Tour, Hot Rod Charlie, Medina Spirit, Midnight Bourbon and Soup and Sandwich all among those who could be on or just off the lead.

• If that happens, you’re going to want to back a horse that can finish well.  Courtesy of VSIN’s Ron Flatter I can tell you that four horses have run the final 3 furlongs of their career-best races in under 37 seconds — Essential Quality, Highly Motivated, Known Agenda and Rombauer.

• Many bettors will make their Derby 2021 betting decisions based on commercial speed figures. I don’t recommend it, but at least know that there are many differences in how the various services view individual Kentucky Derby 2021 races:

Derby points	Horse	Beyer	Brisnet	Equibase	Timeform US	Race Earned
140	Essential Quality	97	101	109	118	Blue Grass Stakes
110	Hot Rod Charlie	99	100	99	117	Louisiana Derby
109	Super Stock	92	97	106	116	Arkansas Derby
104	Like the King	86	91	95	110	Jeff Ruby Steaks
102	Known Agenda	94	94	112	113	Florida Derby
100	Rock Your World	100	92	103	124	Santa Anita Derby
100	Bourbonic	89	89	100	104	Wood Memorial
74	Medina Spirit	99	97	98	120	San Felipe Stakes
70	Concert Tour	94	97	105	116	Rebel Stakes
66	Midnight Bourbon	96	98	99	114	Louisiana Derby/Lecomte Stakes*
52	Mandaloun	98	100	97	113	Risen Star Stakes
50	Caddo River	92	95	102	117	Arkansas Derby
50	Highly Motivated	96	102	108	118	Blue Grass Stakes
50	Helium	84	93	94	109	Tampa Bay Derby
40	Soup and Sandwich	90	98	108	112	Florida Derby
40	Dynamic One	89	95	100	106	Wood Memorial
40	Crowded Trade	N/A	92	98	103	Wood Memorial
40	Sainthood	86	91	93	111	Jeff Ruby Steaks
34	Rombauer	88	96	100	111	Blue Grass Stakes
32	Hidden Stash	83	93	94	106	Blue Grass Stakes
	Best figure earned as 3-year-old around two turns	* rated off different races

The smoke should clear over the next week or two, as the lineup firms up and riders are secured. The field will be set in stone – except for the possibility of late scratches — at the post position draw at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, April 27.

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