Hello. So you are coming to this American Gambler Super Bowl 2021 betting page sometime during the NFL regular season.
It could be early in the season, when the pretenders and contenders are still being sorted out and sifted through by the talking heads and the pundits.
Or it might be later in the campaign, when the elite teams have started to rise to the top of the AFC and NFC.
But either way, if you are trying to figure out which team to put your hard-earned money on, the buck has to stop with the current favorite Kansas City Chiefs.
Before the season began, sports bettors around the country named the defending champion Chiefs as their number one pick to win this year’s edition (13 percent), and repeat as champions, while the Dallas Cowboys were second at nine percent.
After one month of the season, though, I would suspect those bettors would have overwhelmingly went with Kansas City, especially after the Chiefs wiped the floor in Week 3 with the team that is also getting a lot of play with the books: the Baltimore Ravens.
Before the season began, the Ravens and Chiefs had near identical odds to win Super Bowl LV, right around +500.
Heading into Week 4, those odds had already dramatically shifted: Kansas City was +375, while the Ravens had already drifted out to +650-+700 with some books. No NFC team was below odds of +1000, with Seattle (+1000) and Green Bay (+1300) the two best odds.
If you are adamant that a team is going to win the Super Bowl, especially the Chiefs, bet them as soon as possible. Kansas City’s odds should drop further as the season progresses.
The only problem, though, is potential injuries. If your pick’s star player gets injured, like what happened to Denver this season, you are out of luck.
When trying to figure out which player to pick for Super Bowl LV MVP, the list, especially this season, has to start with the winning team’s quarterback.
In the previous 54-year history of the Super Bowl, a QB has won this award 30 times, which breaks down to 56 percent.
If you are one of the approximately 33 million people that will wager on sports this year (which of course you are, if you found this page), and not one of the people that will just casually bet on the Super Bowl through boxes or a friendly wager at a party, you will want to give yourself the best chance to win your bet.
This season, if it is the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens in the big game, the overwhelming choice for MVP will have to be either last year’s winner Patrick Mahomes (KC) or last year’s regular season MVP Lamar Jackson (BAL), both QBs. The odds for them are going to be lower than the ones on the board for more exotic players, but do not be suckered in by the big odds and a chance at a big payday: in the last 14 Super Bowls, 10 have had quarterbacks as the MVP.
If you think the underdog might have a chance in this offensive of seasons, you should probably go with that team’s quarterback, but there have been five occasions where a defensive player has won the award (9 percent), most recently Von Miller for the Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Denver won 24-10, and two of the touchdowns the Broncos scored came directly from plays Miller made. He is also a future Hall-of-Famer, and was dominant that year.
But with just four players in the last 24 coming from the defensive side, you would be better suited putting your money where most of the plays are made: in the capable hands of the quarterback, especially in this season.
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SUPER BOWL 2021 Futures Matchup Betting
Before the NFL season, or after each week of the season, bettors will get an opportunity to make bets on who they believe can win Super Bowl LV.
Different sportsbooks in NJ, Colorado, Indiana, PA and Illinois will also post odds on what the exact super bowl 2021 matchup could potentially be. You can really swing for the fences by picking longshots in each conference, or go after the more prohibitive favorites. This betting market in particular can reward bettors before opening kickoff has begun. Imagine seeing money in your wagering account from a bet you placed before the season or mid-season. The odds get progressively longer beginning with conference futures, super bowl futures and exact matchup outcomes.
For example, by Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season, books were offering certain odds on teams to match up in the Super Bowl at the end of the season. Kansas City, which came into the campaign as the defending champion and already had a win over the second favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Baltimore Ravens, were the team with the shortest odds against most of the NFC favorites. A Kansas City-Seattle game was the first choice on the books, with the Chiefs and Green Bay the second choice.
Of course, if you think the Ravens are going to beat the Chiefs this time around and advance to the Super Bowl, you can get much better odds now for them to face any of the NFC favorites than you could have a few weeks ago, before Baltimore’s 34-20 loss to the Chiefs in Week 3 of the season.
Right now, it is hard to see any team other than the Chiefs coming out of the AFC, although the Ravens will have some support. The best way to bet this now might be to pick either one or the other (I would back the Chiefs), then pair them with the top two or three teams in the NFC.
In the last six seasons, no team that has played in the Wild Card round has made the Super Bowl, so look for teams that are the favorites to get one of the top two seeds: my picks would be either Green Bay or Seattle. You can eliminate the NFC East, so that narrows your choices.