Elite Eight (NCAA basketball) Betting Strategy & Predictions

elite eight betting predictions

By the time the NCAA men’s basketball tournament gets down to the Elite Eight, almost 90 percent of the games have been played.

The way the tournament has been set up is, there are two Elite Eight games on Saturday (the teams that won in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night) and two games on Sunday (the teams that won in the Sweet 16 on Friday night).

Most of the lower seeds have been cleared out by now, but that does not mean the top seeds will walk into the Final Four. On the contrary: while a team seeded first has largely come away as the eventual champion – 11 of the last 15 (73%) and 15 of the last 21 (71%)- of late, that does not mean that the Final Four has been stocked with them.

5 betting strategies for the Elite Eight contests.

1. After dominating the Sweet 16, top seeds regress back towards .500 in the Elite Eight.

In the Sweet 16 over the last five years, top seeds are 15-1. But those teams are just 9-6 in the Elite Eight. Going back further to 2012, top seeds win 57 percent of the time (12-9) in this round.

In the last decade, there has been only one year (2011) when a top seed did not advance to the Final Four.

2. Top seeds do not perform well against the spread of late.

When the games get to this round, it is almost always the better teams in the country, with one or two surprises every once in a while.

The top seeds have struggled in the Elite Eight against the spread, going 12-19 over a decade, winning by just over a point per game. Straight up, they are 17-14.

3. When the chalk holds in a bracket, it is a coin flip between one and two.

Obviously, the top two seeds in a bracket are usually the best teams. While some brackets get blown up, others have the chalk standing at the end. Second seeds have performed very well against the top seeds in the Elite Eight, winning exactly 50 percent of the games (24-24). In the last decade, it trends towards the second seeds, who have won 64 percent of those meetings (7-4).

4. Some lower seeds are better than others.

There have been some bracket busters that have made their way to the Final Four of late, especially in the last decade.

Seven teams seeded lower than five have made it all the way to the final weekend of the men’s basketball season, but they come from specific lines. No six seed has been to the Final Four since 1992, while just one nine seed (Wichita State, 2013) and 10 seed (Syracuse, 2016) have gone. No teams seeded 12th or lower have ever advanced to the Final Four.

Contrast that with the eight seeds, who have gone five times, and the 11 seeds, who have gone four times.  

5. Three and five seeds are almost always an underdog, but perform pretty well.

Over a decade, teams seeded third came into their Elite Eight games as the underdog in all 12 games. They are 6-6 overall, and 7-5 against the spread.

Five seeds are 4-0 in that same time, both straight up and against the spread.

Elite 8 NCAA Basketball Betting Predictions, Odds & Free Bets?

All  bettings sites in the USA (NJ, PA, Indiana, New York etc.) will have the NCAA tournament games, as well as live in-play betting and futures.

Some of the top US sportsbooks for Elite 8 betting odds (predictions), free bets promotions and bonuses are:

Website
Bonus
Rating
Promo / Sign Up
4.6 rating
See Full Review
William Hill
Free Bets Bonus. Use promo code for your state!
Free Bets Bonus. Use promo code for your state!
William Hill
4.6 rating
See Full Review
GET BONUS!
4.7 rating
See Full Review
bet365 NJ
$100 Sportsbook Bonus. Promo code NJGAMBLER
$100 Sportsbook Bonus. Promo code NJGAMBLER
bet365 NJ
4.7 rating
See Full Review
GET BONUS!
4.8 rating
See Full Review
BetMGM
100% deposit match up to $500. Promo code: AMERICANGAMBLER
100% deposit match up to $500. Promo code: AMERICANGAMBLER
BetMGM
4.8 rating
See Full Review
GET BETMGM BONUS!
4.8 rating
See Full Review
Caesars App
$300 Deposit Bonus. Promo Code: CAESARSGAMBLER
$300 Deposit Bonus. Promo Code: CAESARSGAMBLER
Caesars App
4.8 rating
See Full Review
GET CAESARS BONUS!
Total
0
Shares

Free Offers, Special Bonuses & Betting Insights

We send you special offers, bonus codes and betting insights. U.S. ONLY. MUST BE 21+.