Latest: There is currently a 2% chance that Trump will be impeached, according to Betfair UK.
Retrospective odds and chances below:
Trump will be impeached betting market: 94%
- December 2019 – 94% chance. Biggest bet on odds 1.01 – $12.126
- October 2019 – 72% vs. September 2018 – 71%
- Odds: 1.34
- Average stake: 357 USD
$2,388,124 was bet on the “impeachment” market according to Betfair UK.
The chances of impeachment skyrocked to 94%, you now can win $10 if you bet $1000. Odds are 1.01. Biggest bet on Trump to be impeached so far – $12.126 from UK. Total wagered on the market 2.4 mln USD.
Trump will win next US elections odds and chances: 43%
- July, chances – 50%
- September, chances – 30%
- October, chances – 42%. Odds: 2.38
- December 2019 – 43%. Odds: 2.01. Biggest bet $4.000
Matched total on this market (Betfair UK) – 8 mln USD.
Chances for Warren to win remain the same, slightly decreasing, currently just 25%.
Trump will LEAVE OFFICE betting odds movement and chances: 23%
- The lowest possibility – Sept.8, 10%
- The current possibility – 23%. Odds: 4.20
Total wagered on the market – 920.000 USD. Increase by 17%. Average stake: 92 USD.
It is another rough week in the news cycle for President Trump.
Over 7.6mln USD was wagered on the US election across the UK bookmakers so far – out of 100mln USD predicted.
The story: On Tuesday, September 24, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi announced that the House of Representatives would be opening an impeachment inquiry into Trump, in large part to a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Change in the betting pattern
There was a change in the betting pattern around the inquiry announcement, with some bettors backing Democrats Elizabeth Warren and Joseph Biden, and others backing Trump to be impeached. The betting odds (by UK bookmakers) surrounding Warren and Biden to win the 2020 US Election next November soared, as did the odds for impeachment, which skyrocketed up to a 65 percent chance.
Warren and Biden chances actually dropped by 25 percent
But that had changed. The majority of the bets coming in by the weekend were back on Trump to win a second term, while the odds (chances) on Warren and Biden dropped by 25 percent. Oct. 13 chances to win election – 28%, October 29 – 21%.
So despite all the noise about a possible impeachment of President Trump, the betting markets are showing that there are no real signs that this will happen. This correlates to the recent polls showing that Americans are split, 49%-46%, on whether they approve of Democrats' impeachment inquiry into President Trump.
Here are some of the 2020 US Election odds and highest bets*:
- Highest bet on Trump to win election: $5,820 at odds of 2.34
- Highest bet on Warren to win election: $1,120 at odds of 3.8
- Highest bet on Biden to win election: $161 at odds of 9.8
- Highest bet on Bernie Sanders to win election: $122 at odds of 21.0
- Highest bet on Kamala Harris to win election: $85 at odds of 44.0
- Trump to be impeached odds are down to 54 percent, with the average bet $400
- Trump is still the favorite to win 2020 election, with odds between +110 and +120
*Data compiled and analyzed by AmericanGambler.com via betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
Trump has used the inquiry announcement to raise more money this week for his ever growing election war chest, which is something that will continue to move the odds in his favor over the next year. While the Democrats fight it out to see which one of them will head the ticket next fall, Trump can continue to raise funds for what is expected to be another tough campaign battle.
Unfortunately, no legal US sportsbooks accept bets on the 2020 US Election at the moment. However, we at AmericanGambler.com hope that the situation will change and the bookies will set the odds on this interesting and exciting betting market.