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Are there upset picks on 2021 March Madness?

Author: americangambler | Last Updated: December 12, 2020

At this point, everyone that follows the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament 2021 knows that the last line you want your team seeded on during the announcement is the 5 seed.

Even that guy who knows nothing about anything in the office knows to pick at least one 12 seed in his office pool.

If you are trying to find some early round (either the first or second round games) March Madness 2021 underdogs to wager on, either on the money line or point spread line, look for games that have point spreads between 7-11 points.

Traditionally, the games between teams that are very highly seeded and lower seeded have big spreads, from -15 upwards into the -20s or more.

But there are a lot of games with teams that the US sportsbooks think one of the teams were mis-seeded, and you might see a 13 seed facing a 4 seed with a line of only -7. That should be a “red flag” that this could be an upset.

In the 8-9 first round game, underdogs are 26-18 over the last 11 tournaments. So whether it is the 8 or the 9, take a shot on the team getting points. But if the nine seed advances, do not take them against the top seed: they have won just 7 of 72, compared to 13 of 68 for the 8 in the second round.

If the 10 seed wins their first round game (55-85 all time), look at them to continue their run against the 2 seed (most likely) on the weekend: 10s are 24-32 all time in the second round.

Once you get further into the tournament, such as the Sweet 16, try to find teams that have a clutch player who might be headed to the NBA.

Those types of players can take over a game and help your wager win on their own. Of course, if a team is riding a long winning streak into the later rounds, maybe they have not lost since early February, that could be another option. 

Betting is an art as well as a science. Sometimes, it comes down to your gut feeling that a team can pull off an upset that day.