The NASCAR series is loaded with stars of which any number of drivers could be considered championship contenders early in the 2019 season. Of course just because a driver is showing promise and could end up being a title contender does not mean they are a justifiable wager at their listed odds. There is a line between what is a good bet and what is a good value bet.
In long-range futures bets that will not settle for several months, it is generally a good practice to evaluate the possible wager based on its current value. There is simply no way to tell who will win the title right now. Essentially you are handicapping who can perform best at Homestead Speedway (and other title tracks beyond 2020) in a single race. Furthermore, you have to assess if the driver of consideration even has the ability to make the final four contenders to qualify and win the title.
I am usually not in favor of tying up season long bets unless the value is really outstanding. At this point, we are seeing the bookmakers react to the changes on the track, and by how much liability they have on certain drivers. It is never good to be at the mercy of the bookmaker when they are making in-season adjustments.
As of now the cars from Joe Gibbs Racing, and Team Penske appear to be the best, however, these things have a tendency of changing quickly. But when considering the driver talent of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., and Denny Hamlin on the Gibb’s team, it is hard to find a reason not to support them. The same can be said for Team Penske with Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, and 2018 champion Joey Logano. Brad Keselowski is a sharp play as he was still 10-1 a few races into the season. If Keselowski can be found at double-digit odds then he is a good pick at that value.
If looking for a long shot driver to win the 2019 NASCAR championship, Kurt Busch at odds of 30-1, and Austin Dillon at 100-1 are wagers of value. Kurt Busch has been remarkably consistent with several top 10 finishes and a solid point’s position early in the year. Additionally, Kurt Busch and his new team are starting to work better as a unit which will probably only improve as the season continues.
Austin Dillon is well outside the group of top drivers but has been far more consistent early this season, and he could excel at several the tracks in the playoffs. This is a massive price that could offer a limited chance to hedge the bet in the final race, should he make it that far. Again, Austin Dillon is a genuine long shot as should be treated as such.