Table of Contents

What is the best strategy for wagering on propositions like over/unders?

Author: AmericanGambler1234 | Last Updated: April 19, 2019

There are many strategies for wagering on the vast array of race propositions. One example is the over/under on number of laps led during a race by any single driver. This would be considered an over/under proposition bet. If the over/under on any single driver to lead the most laps is set at 190 laps, then the bettor must decide if the driver who leads the most laps will lead over or under 190 laps during the race.

As a bettor you would then handicap and try to figure out if any single driver and car is so dominate that you expect them to lead over or under the threshold of 190 laps. The first consideration would be, how many total laps are set to be run in the race? If the race is being held at Martinsville (500 laps) or Las Vegas (267 laps) this is a factor that is crucial to handicapping.

These types of wagers are becoming more popular in NASCAR, and while they are enjoyable I would be very cautious in making these bets. Often they seem to be a lot more attractive than they really are, especially when it comes to wagering on the “over” in these situations. Typically casual bettors will look to bet on the over in these situations because novelty bettors can have a tendency to bet on what they want to see. This brings me to quickly discuss a clean slate mental state, that is free from personal bias.

My first exposure to NASCAR was wagering on a race over twenty five years ago. Since that day I have not had a favorite driver to speak of. Sure, there have been drivers that I have preferred over some others, but really there are no allegiances from one driver to another. I believe this has served me well, and I think it’s important for bettors who want to be profitable to limit or eliminate personal bias as much as they can. I probably would have a hard time eliminating the same level of bias if I were wagering on college football.

By not having a favorite driver, team, or manufacture there should not be, or at least almost no personal bias on your handicapping platform. Eliminating the urge to wager with your heart is crucial when making informed and justifiable bets. This is true for wagering on any sport. For the handicappers who are new to NASCAR or Dale Jr. fans who are searching for a new driver, this is a great way to get interested again, with probably far more excitement than ever before. The clean slate approach that is free from personal bias is a great place to start.

Getting back to proposition wagers, I would really encourage the handicappers to read the fine print very closely when considering such bets. When it comes to these wagers they can be constructed in several ways and each sportsbook can offer a variation of the same wager. This is important when it comes to shopping around for the best price on similar proposition wagers, which should always be done.

One of the more popular wagers that is offered is the over/under on the number of different drivers to lead a lap during the course of a race. The key word here is “different” as it’s not uncommon for the same driver to lead laps at different times during the same race. This is often where new bettors can get tricked into thinking it will be easy to exceed this total. If there is one point that should be made very clearly, it would be that the sportsbooks are extremely sharp and there are very few easy wins betting on any sport.

When evaluating proposition wagers that are created with the over/under type of format it is crucial to do your homework in order to find any edge that might exist. Often these bets are slightly shaded up because the public tends to bet the “over” in many situations. Usually the public is more captivated by the chances of frequent passing and many race leaders in a exciting race that they hope to witness.

So much of wagering is psychological in terms of what the bettor wants to see and what usually happens. More often than not, these proposition wagers are laced with some shock value for the casual bettor. Casual bettors often perceive totals to be low and exploitable. As you can imagine many of these bets do not hit the “over” criteria, often leaving the recreational bettor surprised they lost.