Usman vs. Masvidal 2 Betting Predictions, Picks & Moneyline Odds

Fans are ready to return to the Octagon as welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal headline UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida, this Saturday (April 24). Read our prediction & betting odds in this Usman vs. Masvidal 2 preiew and get free bets promo credits by placing first bets via William Hill betting app in NJ, CO, IN, IL, WV, TN, MI. 

UFC 261 Info

  • Date: Saturday, April 24
  • Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
  • Viewing Info: ESPN, ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass
  • Card Schedule
  • Early Prelims: 5:45 p.m. ET (10:45 p.m. BST)
  • Prelims: 8 p.m. ET (1 a.m. BST)
  • Main Card: 10 p.m. ET (3 a.m. BST)
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The latest in a string of high-level rematches sees “Gamebred” get a chance to avenge his unanimous-decision defeat to Usman (18-1) in July 2020. 

Masvidal (25-14) stepped in on less than one week’s notice to replace Gilbert Burns as the challenger on that occasion, but now the Nigerian Nightmare must get the better of him at his best:

Usman, 33, is nonetheless tipped as a heavy -420 favorite to beat Masvidal a second time, according to William Hill New Jersey. Few could argue against the decision going in the former’s favor when they last fought, but a newly prepared Masvidal is at huge odds of +1600 to reverse that result on this occasion. 

Gamebred, 36, has become better known for his finishing talents in recent years and last won a decision when he beat Ross Pearson in July 2016, however. Usman looks by far the more likely to emerge on top if the fight does go five rounds, though that’s far from a guarantee.

UFC 261 Prediction: Jorge Masvidal Huge Odds Boost to Beat Kamaru Usman

One could certainly argue Masvidal gave Usman the closest competition of his most recent bouts, which includes a stacked list of opponents at the elite level:

https://twitter.com/btsportufc/status/1384818325696520193

That being said, there’s simply no evident way to beating Usman at his current standard, having now gone unbeaten in 17 fights and looking to defend his UFC welterweight championship a fourth time running.

Burns tried and failed to beat his former Blackzilians team-mate in February, when Usman made his third-round TKO of a daunting opponent look almost routine. Masvidal has at least a puncher’s chance given there’s a certain sense of enigma to his striking, but Usman looks to have the edge in pretty much every department, particularly if he can bring the bout to the ground:

Prediction: Usman via decision (-125)

Backing Usman on the moneyline yields little value at -420 odds, but a straight-up parlay alongside women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko—who is at the same odds to defend her belt against Jessica Andrade—boosts that price up to -189.

There’s a sense that is Usman couldn’t finish Masvidal on six days’ notice, his +250 odds to do so when Gamebred has had a full camp look even less logical. For that reason, the -125 price on a repeat of his decision victory looks most advisable on paper, although this has the makings of anything but a snoozefest, meaning anything and everything is on the table.

Usman vs. Masvidal 2 Moneyline Odds

  • Kamaru Usman: -420
  • Jorge Masvidal: +330
  • Odds via William Hill NJ
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