President Donald Trump is fighting an uphill battle to be re-elected for a second term in the Oval Office, with Democrat nominee Joe Biden blazing ahead in certain polls roughly one month before the vote.
News of Biden’s seemingly growing popularity comes just ahead of the first presidential debate, which is set to take place in Cleveland on Tuesday evening.
One poll undertaken by ABC News and the Washington Post went so far as to suggest Biden leads by as much as 10 points with likely voters:
That alone won’t put Biden in the White House, however, as many will remember the 2016 Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, led by as much as 12 points one week from her election defeat four years ago, per CNN.
Still, it’s enough to push Biden as the -150 favorite to become the next President o the United States, according to Oddschecker. But Trump pulled off the upset before and will retain some confidence his voter base can turn out in strong enough numbers to overturn his +100 underdog odds.
Prediction: Donald Trump to win second term
History has a habit of repeating itself in sociopolitical circles, and if 2016 taught us anything, it’s that poll numbers and Twitter threads aren’t necessarily representative of the United States as a whole. Between the handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the harsh divisions that followed the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement (though not because of), many within Trump’s base are sure to feel this is their moment to push back.
Biden won the nominee race among Democrats and has earned the support of many public figures and officials, but not all left-leaning voters have seen fit to throw their weight behind the 77-year-old:
That lack of unity could be the chink in the Democratic armor that the Republicans exploit. The right is not burdened by the same uncertainty in their own representative, while many democrats could well hurt Biden’s chances through abstaining.
The swing state race will be as critical as ever, and Trump still has a good chance of good numbers in areas like Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina and Florida, the latter comprising a valuable 29 electoral votes.
Biden must use the three upcoming presidential debates as an opportunity to show middle-ground voters why he’s the optimal choice, but the pressure of a live, public forum has all the potential to run in favor of the incumbent.
2020 U.S. Election Odds
Donald Trump: +100
Joe Biden: -150