UFC Vegas 25 Predictions: Reyes-Prochazka Submission Special Returns Big Odds

Dominick Reyes returns to action at UFC Vegas 25 on Saturday (May 1) in the hopes he can put a disappointing 2020 behind him, but Jiri Prochazka doesn’t make for an easy route back to the win column.

Reyes vs. Prochazka Prediction: Reyes via decision (+450)

Having taken a legend like Jones to five rounds, Reyes has proved he’s capable over the distance. Losses to two fighters of championship calibre in succession is no embarrassment, and provided he’s recovered mentally from that setback, victory over Prochazka could yet get him straight back into the title conversation at light heavyweight.

Reyes vs. Prochazka Moneyline Odds

Dominick Reyes: +110

Jiri Prochazka: -110

UFC Vegas 25 Betting Preview

“The Devastator” suffered two defeats in as many outings last year, both of which were for the UFC light heavyweight championship. Jon Jones handed Reyes (12-2) the first loss of his career in a controversial unanimous-decision result before Jan Blachowicz knocked him out to take the vacant belt seven months later.

Prochazka (27-3-1) is still the new kid on the block after knocking out Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut, his 11th straight win after an almost flawless career in Rizin. That victory was enough to convince William Hill USA the Czech star deserves to edge in front as a -110 favorite against Reyes, who settles for being the slimmest of underdogs at +110:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knRMfWDjKZE

UFC Vegas 25 Betting Info & Card Schedule

Date: Saturday, May 1

Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada

Viewing Info: ESPN, ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass

Prelims: 7 p.m. ET (12 a.m. BST)

Main Card: 10 p.m. ET (3 a.m. BST)

Reyes was likeable as the more technical striker in this matchup even before the odds were announced, but the California native is that much more appealing at plus odds. 

William Hill are also running an odds boost at +1800 returns that Reyes wins by submission, although more than three years have passed since he tapped Jeremy Kimball in his second UFC outing. That counts as one of only two submission victories on Reyes’ record, though the Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt could see the grappling as an area worth exploiting against powerhouse Prochazka:

In theory, this matchup should pan out as a stand-up war between two combatants who are most proficient in their striking. Prochazka’s last nine bouts have each ended as knockout wins in his favor, four of which were clean KOs (including the last three).

Reyes doesn’t possess nearly the same power, but there can be little question the 31-year-old is the more polished fighter. A finish is also more difficult for The Devastator considering Prochazka displayed an impressive chin against Oezdemir, whom he beat via split decision in March 2019.

If Reyes were to score a stoppage win on Saturday, the kicking game will be critical. Prochazka’s three-inch reach advantage is a scary proposition, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the underdog looked to the low kicks not only to weaken his opponent’s base, but also as a means to set him up for a possible head-kick finish.