Here is our next Betting 101 article on the value of knowing which football teams are the most successful in the red zone.
There are certain stats within a football game that can provide an insightful tip as to which teams figure to win more often than not. One such stats is turnover ratio. Teams that finish with positive numbers in this category are sound bets. Historically, the teams that win the turnover battle win the vast majority of games.
Another stat to track that perhaps doesn’t get the attention that the turnover ratio receives but is equally solid at deciphering winners is red zone performance. The red zone is what football people call it when an offense moves the ball inside the other team’s 20-yard line.
Not surprisingly, teams that are the most successful at turning red zone possessions into touchdowns are also going to win more games than they lose.
During the 2019 NFL season, the best red zone team was the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were able to turn 77.36 percent of all of their red zone possessions into TDs. Yet Tennessee was only 10th in the NFL in scoring offense, averaging 25.1 points per game. Without knowledge of the red-zone success of the Titans, a bettor might underestimate the potency of the team’s attack.
The value of this red zone statistic was proven evident during the 2019 NFL playoffs. Tennessee qualified as a Wild Card team. Yet the Titans advanced all the way to the AFC Championship Game before succumbing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The No. 2 red zone team in the NFL in 2019 was the Green Bay Packers (67.86 percent). Like the Titans, the Packers were a playoff team and advanced to the NFC Championship Game, coming up short against the San Francisco 49ers.
The worst red zone team to make the playoffs was the New England Patriots (26th – 49.21 percent). The Patriots captured the title in a very soft AFC East division but lost at home to the Titans in the Wild Card round. A sharp bettor who’d researched both teams in terms of red zone performance would’ve recognized the value in a play on the underdog Titans.
You can call it capitalizing on their chances, or coming up big when it matters. It’s simple, really – teams that are good in the red zone are good bets to win.