Quick fire betting guide to Super Bowl LV; Chiefs head in as slight favorites

Back in the late 1980s to the early 2000s, there were repeat Super Bowl champions all over the shop.

The San Francisco 49ers did it during the 1988 and 1989 season. Then it was the Dallas Cowboys turn, going back to back in 1992 and 1993. Next up were the Denver Broncos in 1997 and 1998, with the first one denying Green Bay two-straight titles. Finally, the New England Patriots did it in 2003 and 2004, thanks to Tom Brady.

Since then? Not once.

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It is hard to do, apparently, and not just in the NFL. In the three other major sports in America, there have only been three other repeat winners since the Pats: the 2009 and 2010 Los Angeles Lakers, the 2016 and 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins, and the 2017 and 2018 Golden State Warriors.

So the Kansas City Chiefs, winners of Super Bowl LIV, have a chance to enter some rarified air.

This Kansas City team reminds me a lot of the 1998 Denver Broncos: that team started 13-0 after their 1997 title, and then had a tough game in the AFC Championship with the Jets. But the Super Bowl was a blowout, with the Broncos taking a 34-6 lead in the fourth quarter before winning 34-19.

The Chiefs are currently a -3 point favorite, with the money line around -160. Their opponents, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ironically went on the road for all three NFC playoff games and won, only to get a chance to play the Super Bowl at home, a first for the big game.

Right now, Kansas City is getting 55 percent of the money line bets, which has increased from 43 percent in the first week of betting on Super Bowl LV, and 55 percent of the money line handle.

The Chiefs are taking 68 percent of the -3 spread bets right now, but that number is coming down from last week, which was 73 percent. They also have 72 percent of the spread handle.

But Kansas City has not been great this season against the spread (7-10-1), until the AFC Championship Game. 

Tampa Bay, however, has been good at covering the spread (11-8), and can still be found at +3.5 with some sportsbooks. Tom Brady’s Bucs have covered in seven of their last 10, and each of the last two playoff games.

However, Tampa Bay has not been great against the spread at home in its last two seasons: 5-9-2, although it is 4-2 in its last six, so that trend (with Tom Brady, of course) is changing.

The over, which has dropped from 57.5 to 55.5, has been crushed by the public bettors to the tune of 70 percent, although that number dropped from 76 percent last week. The over has 72 percent of the handle, down from 82 percent last week, so late money seems to be coming in on the under total.

Kansas City is 9-9 hitting the over total, and have hit three of five, but has not done it in back to back games yet this season. Tampa Bay is 11-8 with the over.

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SB 55 Prediction:

Super Bowl 2021: I will take the over 55.5 points and hope for a game in the 30s. The team with the ball last could well win this, but I will take Kansas City -3 to build its new dynasty.

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