Odds & Prediction: Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo (UFC 148)

A massive influx of talent into the UFC this past year has created many an odds mismatch between fighters who are relatively untested at this level—Spike Carlyle’s clash with Bill Algeo may well fall under that category.

“The Alpha Ginger” attracted huge attention following a first-round knockout win over Aalon Cruz in his UFC debut before coming off noticeably worse in a unanimous-decision loss to Billy Quarantillo in May. Despite the setback, 9-2 Carlyle returns to favorite status at -176 moneyline odds at Borgata, but Algeo looks the more attractive pick as a +145 dog at UFC Fight Night 184.

Unlike Carlyle, “Senor Perfecto” lost in his UFC debut back in August, but the promotion handed him an incredibly tough matchup in veteran Ricardo Lamas. Algeo can expect to fight a foe much closer to his own level on this occasion, where his biggest advantage will be in the ground game.

Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo Our Pick: Algeo via decision

Carlyle has a great fuel tank and is fast on his feet, but it’s foreseeable that Algeo will take advantage of any flaws in his takedown defense (or attempts), having collected the majority of his mixed martial arts wins via submission (six).