Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs – Picks & Predictions

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Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs – Picks & Predictions

Author: Andy Hammel | Publish Date: January 11, 2024 | Last Updated: January 11, 2024

Wildcard weekend of the NFL playoffs will open with two games on Saturday, including an evening tilt between the AFC West champion Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) and visiting Miami Dolphins (11-6). Markets will be available across NFL betting apps including moneylines, spreads, totals, game and team props, and several parlay options. Customers can also treat themselves to dozens of NFL betting promos.

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Head-to-Head: Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs

Neither team in this game is entering the playoff tournament at full steam ahead. The Chiefs are 2-0 and covered the spread in their last two games, but they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers by a combined 9 points. They’ve earned a 5-5 record through their last ten games, and their offense only eclipsed 20 points in four of them.

Over the regular season, the Chiefs ranked 9th in yards (351.3), 6th in passing yards (246.4), and 15th in points (21.8) per game. Through their last three games, they rank 23rd (316.3), 23rd (203.0), and 27th (17.3). Patrick Mahomes finished with career-low marks in yards per attempt (7.0) and QBR (62.9). Travis Kelce finished with his lowest totals in receptions (67) and yards (862).

The Dolphins coasted through most of the 2023 season with prolific offensive numbers, but lost their last two regular season games against the Baltimore Ravens and rival Buffalo Bills to concede the AFC East title. They ranked first over the season in yards (401.6) and second in points (29.2) per game, but ranked 15th in both categories (343.7 and 18.3, respectively) through the lat three weeks. Tyreek Hill, who completed his second straight 119-catch season for a career-high 1,799 yards, is a figure of great interest on the injury report heading into his first visit to Arrowhead since arriving in Miami via trade.

In their last four meetings between these teams since 2014, the Chiefs are 4-0. That includes a meeting earlier this season, when the Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 in Frankfurt, Germany.

How to Bet on Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs

Betting markets for the Dolphins and Chiefs will be available at all online sportsbooks in America. Make sure to browse the options available in your state to find the best odds for the bets you want to make, as well as any unique props or sports betting promotions for the game.

In addition, be sure to check the injury report before finalizing any bets. Several key players remain in tenuous injury situations heading into the game – the outcome could easily hinge on who among them is able to suit up.

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

  • Money Line: Miami Dolphins +190, Kansas City Chiefs -230
  • Spread: KC -4.5
  • Total: o/u 44.5

Betting Tips for Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Chiefs are 4-0 in their last 4 meetings with the Dolphins.
  • The Chiefs are 1-3 in their last 4 home games.
  • The Under is 7-3 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games.
  • The Under is 3-1 in the Dolphins’ last 4 games.

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions

Several key starters for the Dolphins – including receivers Hill and Jaylen Waddle, running backs Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey, safeties DeShone Elliott and Jevon Holland, and offensive linemen Terron Armstead and Liam Eichenberg – have been limited or non-participants in practice this week. The safeties in particular bear watching, with neither Elliott nor Holland practicing through Wednesday.

If everyone’s able to play, the Dolphins will have a better chance than the odds indicate. They’ve been notoriously better at home than on the road through the season, but decisively won two of their last three road games and are facing a team that’s been disappointing at home this year. If weather permits a high-scoring game and the Dolphins have all hands on deck, the Chiefs have shown all season that they won’t have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins +4.5

Andy Hammel

Andy is our resident NFL expert, but his knowledge extends to all corners of the sports betting industry. Andy is always tracking betting trends and keeping you up to date on all the relevant news in your home state.