Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills – Picks and Predictions

Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season is upon us, and it’ll close with a Monday Night Football matchup between the rallying Denver Broncos (3-5) and mercurial Buffalo Bills (5-4).

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Head-to-Head: Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

The Broncos and Bills last played near the end of the 2020 regular season – Buffalo won 48-19, holding Drew Lock and the Denver offense to 115 passing yards while gaining 352 of their own. While that’s the high point for the Bills through the series’ recent history, it’s not for a lack of good results. They’ve won five of their last six meetings with the Broncos dating back to 2008.

With wins against the Packers and Chiefs in their last two games, the Broncos are gaining steam and look like a competent mid-season player in the AFC. Their yards per game mark (302.1) ranks in the bottom half of the league, but that’s more due to the team’s early-season defensive ineptitude leaving them with little time on the field. They rank 10th in the league in yards per play (5.7), and second in the league in yards per rushing attempt (4.8).

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It makes for a compelling matchup against the Bills, who rank 30th in the league in yards allowed per rush (4.9) and have overall shown an inability to beat competent teams through recent weeks. They’re 2-3 through their last five games, including one particularly rough loss to the Patriots and exactly zero wins against the spread. Their loss to the Patriots – by a 25-29 score – is also the only game in the Bills’ last five to go over the point total.

The Bills aren’t some fraudulent team that didn’t merit their preseason hype as a title contender, but they’ve been exceptionally unfortunate in terms of player health. Josh Allen and the offense have been burdened with carrying a defense that’s lost several key players between Matt Milano, Tre White, DaQuan Jones, and Ed Oliver. We’ll see if they can do enough to overcome a Broncos defense that’s improved dramatically over their last two wins.

How to Bet on Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

Betting odds for the Broncos and Bills will be readily available on all sports betting apps. Make sure to browse the options in your state for the best odds, as well as any unique game props or available promotions.

Additionally, take time to check each team’s injury report before submitting your bets. Player availability may not be finalized until gameday, but the report is publicly available and a critical resource for bettors who need up-to-date information about player health to make informed bets.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Odds

• Money Line: DEN +320, BUF -405
• Spread: BUF -7.5
• Total: o/u 47.0

Betting Tips for Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills

• The Bills are 4-0 through their last four games at Highmark Stadium.
• The Bills are 7-0 ATS through their last seven meetings with the Broncos.
• The Bills are 0-5 ATS through their last five games.
• The Under is 3-0 through the Broncos’ last three games.
• The Under is 4-1 through the Bills’ last five games.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Predictions

The Bills have alternated losses and wins for each of the past six weeks – a trend that’d see them win again in this matchup. That’d fit with the Bills’ home record this season as well, but there are few other arguments for Buffalo to run away with this one. A 7.5-point spread is bold for a team that hasn’t topped 25 points or won by more than six points in any of their last five games.

Look for the Broncos to run against a vulnerable Bills defensive front, keeping the game close and low-scoring throughout. No one should be surprised if the Bills win, but it’d be noteworthy if they won decisively enough to cover the spread and break the total.

Prediction: Denver Broncos +7.5