Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins – Picks and Predictions

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Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins – Picks and Predictions

Author: Andy Hammel | Publish Date: January 4, 2024 | Last Updated: January 4, 2024

The last week of the 2023 NFL regular season is upon is, and it’ll close on Sunday night with a pivotal matchup between the Miami Dolphins (11-5) and the visiting Buffalo Bills (10-6). Betting markets for the game will be available at all online sportsbooks, allowing fans to bet on moneylines, spreads, totals, props, parlays, and capitalize on NFL betting promos.

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Head-to-Head: Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Few teams enter the weekend with more positive momentum than the Bills, who’ve rebounded from being written off at 6-6 to win four straight games, asserting themselves as a team that can take any opponent in any given week. Despite numerous injuries, the Bills have made it to Week 18 without a single multiple-score loss to their record. While a loss still risks them falling out of the playoffs entirely, a victory over the Dolphins – whom they beat 48-20 in October – can earn the Bills a division championship and the 2 seed in the AFC playoff bracket.

For the Dolphins, momentum has proven fleeting. The team has multiple blowout wins to their record but also has several inexplicably bad losses, beginning with their earlier loss to the Bills and including their 19-56 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. With a 2-4 record in their last six games away from Hard Rock Stadium, the Dolphins’ playoff trajectory could easily change based on whether they lock up home games through the first two rounds.

The Bills have been dominant in the rivalry through recent years, with a 9-1 record against the Dolphins since the start of the 2019 season. The lone Dolphins win came in head coach Mike McDaniel’s first meeting with the Bills, and was won 21-19 despite the Bills more than doubling the Dolphins’ yardage output and time of possession.

How to Bet on Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Betting markets for the Bills and Dolphins will be widely available across NFL sportsbook apps. Make sure to browse your options to find the best odds for the bets you want to make, as well as any unique props or promotions that some operators might have for the game.

Additionally, be sure to check the injury report and find up-to-date information regarding player health before making any overly confident bets. Neither team is positioned to rest starters in the last week of the regular season, but the report is a vital publicly-available resource for tracking changes in player health and availability. 

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Odds

  • Money Line: Buffalo Bills -156, Miami Dolphins +132
  • Spread: Buffalo Bills -3.0
  • Total: o/u 49.5

Betting Tips for Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

  • The Dolphins are 7-1 in their last 8 home games.
  • The Bills are 3-6-1 ATS through their last 10 games.
  • The Dolphins have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 home games.
  • The Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 home games.
  • The 1H Game Total Over has hit in 15 of the Dolphins’ last 21 games.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Predictions

It’s tempting to read the trends, believe the Bills have more momentum, and pencil them in to knock the Dolphins out of the lead in the AFC East that they’ve held virtually all season. It wouldn’t be the most surprising outcome for the game, but it’s worth noting that this is the last game of the week. By kickoff, the Bills will know whether a loss knocks them out of the playoff picture. Whether and how much that changes their motivation is another question, but it’s a significant variable that we won’t know until shortly before the game.

The Dolphins’ lone home loss this season came in a 15-point comeback by the Tennessee Titans in the last three minutes of Monday Night Football. Their remaining seven home games include five multiple-score wins and a 22-20 victory over a touted Dallas Cowboys team two weeks ago. While that framing sets the Dolphins up as huge favorites heading into this game, the Bills are 2-0 in their last two away games and beat the Cowboys 31-10 between them.

Bettors looking to take an underdog have a lot of reasons to like the Dolphins in this one, but the spread is close for a reason. Don’t expect a blowout.

Prediction: Miami Dolphins +3

Andy Hammel

Andy is our resident NFL expert, but his knowledge extends to all corners of the sports betting industry. Andy is always tracking betting trends and keeping you up to date on all the relevant news in your home state.