UFC 258 Odds, Picks: Kelvin Gastelum Backs Up Favorite Price with Decision Over Ian Heinisch.
Kelvin Gastelum (-220) vs. Ian Heinisch (+180).
Prediction: Gastelum via decision (+100)
Almost three years removed from his last victory, Kelvin Gastelum travels to Las Vegas as a -220 moneyline favorite to end a three-loss rut when he faces Ian Heinisch in a middleweight matchup.
Despite the lack of recent success, oddsmakers are clearly aware of the fact it’s a very high level of opponent that’s precipitated this downpour in form for Gastelum (15-6-1NC).
He became just the fourth person to take reigning middleweight champion Israel Adesanya to a decision when they clashed for the interim title in 2018 (at the time), since recording losses to Darren Till (via split decision) and Jack Hermansson (heel hook). However, the Ultimate Fighter 17 winner had beaten the likes of Michael Bisping, Jacare Souza and Vitor Belfort (later ruled a no-contest) not long prior to that:
Heinisch (14-3) is getting a move up in competition after his TKO defeat of Gerald Meerschaert in June, but that finish came after back-to-back losses against Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov. Containing those opponents with higher-level wrestling has been the main struggle for the 32-year-old since entering the UFC, where former NJCAA competitor Gastelum just so happens to be at home.
As such, it’s to be expected Heinisch will be wary of going to the ground, making this a fairly predictable fight for Gastelum, whose +100 decision win odds look to be where the value lies. The 29-year-old is yet to be knocked out in his career and should be able to keep Heinisch—who holds a negligible reach advantage—at bay enough to get back on the win trail.