First of all, do you know what a run out is? Most of you surely will but for those who don’t, see below…
A run out is one of the 10 modes of dismissal for batsmen in cricket (the others are bowled, caught, lbw, stumped, obstructing the field, timed out, hit wicket, hit the ball twice and retired out – more on all of those can be found by clicking here).
A batsman is out run out if he attempts to make a run but, before he reaches the popping crease (the painted lines at each end of the wicket) and grounds his bat over the line, the fielding side dislodge the bails on top of the stumps at the end he is running to, using the ball.
Run outs are nowhere near the most common of dismissals in cricket and account for less than 10 per cent of the occasions a batsman is out.
That is the most important point to note before betting on this market.
The player with the highest percentage of run outs in his Test career, Joe Solomon of West Indies, was still only dismissed in this manner on 13.04% of occasions.
That said, there are certain batsmen who are particularly susceptible to run outs and this is where the value is in this market.
Odds on total run outs will usually be presented as an over or under option (for example over 1.5 3.40). It’s your job to establish when the bookies have it wrong. And that means? You be guessed it… research.
Look into the dismissal record of each of the players (Howstat is a useful tool for this) and find out if one player is out run out more often than usual (a run out percentage of more than 4% would suggest they are). Also, check the record of the other batsmen for being the other player at the wicket when a run out occurs. The Test record for running out a teammate is 8.33%, and anything higher than 3% shows an unusual tendency to do so.
The same principle applies if you are betting on which team will have the most run outs over the course of a tournament.
Okay, now you’re ready. Happy punting.