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How do I win gambling on football?
That is the question that has been asked by any person in history that has ever placed a bet on any event, from the Roman times to the present. From year to year, the teams can change, the odds will change. and any number of factors can help or hinder you. But there are usually some tried and true rules to betting on the National Football League (NFL).
All things considered, if two teams are evenly matched, the home team is almost always favored. Home field advantage can play a huge role. One main factor that can be huge in home field is the vastness of America. The NFL covers four times zones, and teams traveling East to play at 1 p.m. on a Sunday have their body clocks used to 10 a.m. Western time. The weather can play a huge role as well, as many teams play in cold climates late in the season.
NFL favorites in 2018 went 175-90-2 last season straight up (with the money line, ie. no point spread), good for a 66.04 winning percentage. It was 69 percent when you bet home favorites (123-55 straight up), by far better odds than betting any of the spread lines.
The break even point for winning games is about 53 percent, anything less than that and you are losing money. Away favorites in 2018 went 59-35-2 (59.77%) straight up, underdogs went 140-119-8 (54.05%) against the point spread a forecast of the number of points by which a stronger team is expected to defeat a weaker one), and away underdogs went 95-77-6 (55.23%) against the spread.
Any of those were above the 53 percent threshold needed to win.