UFC Vegas 19 Odds: Chales Rosa Edges Predictions in Grapple-Off vs. Derrick Minner
Charles Rosa (-190) vs. Derrick Minner (+160) Prediction: Rosa via decision (+325)
Submission specialists will collide in a major way when Charles Rosa and Derrick Minner pit their Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against one another at UFC Vegas 19 this Saturday.
Minner (25-11) will be making just his third appearance in the UFC after going 1-1 in his first two outings, avenging a debut submission loss to Grant Dawson with a choke win of his own over TJ Laramie in September. A grappling combatant by choice, Minner lives and dies by his trade of choice, with his 22 submission victories coming in tandem with eight submission defeats.
Rosa (13-4), by comparison, has never lost by submission and not long ago went a full three rounds against Bryce Mitchell, who’s one of the most respected BJJ technicians at featherweight. Taking that result into account, it feels unlikely that Minner manages to succeed where Mitchell could not, putting the advantage squarely in favor of Rosa, the -190 moneyline favorite at William Hill USA.
It also feels unlikely that Minner looks to the stand-up as an area of strength considering he has only one win via KO/TKO in 36 fights, while Rosa has three by those means in only 17 bouts.
All things considered, a Rosa victory by decision looks like very good value at +325 odds as two competitors of very similar dimensions appear on track to cancel one another’s biggest strengths out.