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Champions League Updated Odds: Preview, Predictions and Best Bets After Quarter-Final Draw

Author: americangambler | Last Updated: March 22, 2021

The route to this season’s UEFA Champions League final betting is now clear after the eight remaining teams were grouped into their respective quarter-finals.

Bet on Champions League in the USA with free bets with the best sports betting apps, such as BetMGM (bonus $600) or Unibet in NJ/PA/IN. Here is our predictions and a betting preview. Odds below.

Europe’s best-performing clubs have sorted themselves from the riff-raff to rise clear for the home stretch, presenting a wealth of wagers and big-value bets as the continent’s top competition rounds to a climactic close.

Titleholders Bayern Munich will meet Paris Saint-Germain in an early rematch of last year’s final. The winner of that quarter will then meet either Manchester City or Borussia Dortmund in the penultimate round.

On the other side of the draw, Real Madrid meet Liverpool as they hope to add to their record haul of 13 European crowns. That tees up a potential all-English semi-final as Chelsea take on Porto in the last quarter, where the Blues will be big favorites to advance.

Pep Guardiola’s City remain the +225 favorites according to Bet365 USA, with incumbent champions Bayern shortly behind, but will we see a dark horse emerge from elsewhere in the field?

2020-21 Champions League Quarter-Finals (1st Leg/2nd Leg)

  • Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund (April 6/14)
  • Real Madrid vs. Liverpool (April 6/14)
  • Porto vs. Chelsea (April 7/13)
  • Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain (April 7/13)

Kylian Mbappe to Finish as Top Scorer (+800)

Despite dispatching Barcelona 5-2 on aggregate in the round of 16, the odds are still clearly stacked against PSG, who are +800 outsiders to win the Champions League. However, while Bayern continue to dazzle as far-and-away one of the best teams in the world, there’s argument to suggest they’re not the same force that edged Les Parisiens 1-0 in last season’s decider.

If we’re honest, the top-scorer award going to anyone but Erling Haaland relies a lot on Dortmund exiting the competition at City’s hands, but in that there’s hope. Sugarhouse USA lists Haaland as -250 frontrunner to finish as top scorer having netted 10 in Europe so far this season, four more than the next group on six, which includes PSG duo Kylian Mbappe and Neymar. 

Neymar has lots of appeal at +1100 to steal Haaland’s march, but he’s only just returning from injury, and +800 pick Mbappe has the added advantage of taking most of PSG’s penalties:

Few clubs have managed to stop Haaland from scoring since he joined Dortmund in January 2020, but he’ll take on probably the world’s best defending team at present in City. The Black and Yellows may well meet their match in Guardiola, while PSG look very capable of scoring goals against (and possibly upsetting) a Bayern side that’s kept only three clean sheets in 16 games outside the FIFA Club World Cup so far in 2021.

Thomas Muller Tops Assist Chart (+650)

Examining that alternate (many would argue more likely) reality where it’s Bayern who advance past PSG, Thomas Muller would then be a prime candidate to overtake as the top assist-maker in this year’s competition.

Juan Cuadrado is the current assists leader on six and is +175 to finish there according to Sugarhouse USA, but his Juventus are already out of the running. City’s Kevin De Bruyne (+155) comes closest with four to his name, while Bayern have three players chasing on three apiece: Kingsley Coman, Joshua Kimmich and Muller.

Leading the Bundesliga with 14 assists to his credit this term—at least four more than any other player in Germany’s top flight—it’s clear who Die Roten’s main orchestrator is when fully fit. Muller recently returned to Bayern’s lineup after a short stint out due to COVID-19, but he’s set up five goals in his last five league outings.

Given he’d need to bank at least four more assists between now and the competition ending, Muller’s +650 price to turn the tide looks steep but a sensible wager nonetheless. He’s back in the swing of things in Hansi Flick’s XI, and Bayern have huge potential to score in great numbers any time they’re in action, tacking up three goals or more in six of their last eight games.

Chelsea to Reach the Final (+200)

Lower odds shouldn’t deter when the logic looks sound, and a +200 wager on Chelsea to make this year’s final thanks to Borgata NJ’s running special makes every bit of sense at present.

Thomas Tuchel has restructured the Blues in a very short space of time to all of a sudden seen unstoppable, and a team that’s perfectly engineered for cup competition. To advance in something like the Champions League, avoiding defeat is the imperative, and Chelsea have all but forgotten the meaning of the word since Tuchel took over at Stamford Bridge:

The west Londoners’ last Champions League trick was knocking out La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid with a 3-0 aggregate win in the round of 16. Their title odds were chopped from +800 to +450 after drawing Porto in the last eight, while a semi-final opposite Real Madrid or Liverpool—both of whom have shown shaky form this season—looks preferable to the alternative.

Roberto Di Matteo famously delivered a Champions League title to Stamford Bridge after taking over Chelsea midway through the 2011-12 season, and Tuchel has shown all the potential to mimic that achievement.

Champions League Odds & Outright Winner Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain (+800)



Manchester City


Bayern Munich








Real Madrid


Borussia Dortmund