2021 NFL Draft Special: Predicting No. 1 Overall Pick, Favorite Odds

The early order of the 2021 NFL Draft seems preordained months before the event even starts on April 29, such is the high stock that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence holds among selectors.

As far as the maths goes, the calculation is as simple as this: The Jacksonville Jaguars have the No. 1 pick and are in desperate need of elite talent at QB, with no signs they’ll be moving. Lawrence is the standout candidate in that regard and is deemed by many to be the best quarterback prospect in years, evidenced by his minuscule odds of -3335 at Sugarhouse NJ and BetMGM.

The 21-year-old’s chances of moving first off the board only appeared to strengthen after he impressed a reported 17 NFL teams at his recent pro day, showcasing an awesome arm and wide range despite an injury to his non-throwing shoulder:

Trevor Lawrence's best throws from @ClemsonFB Pro Day 🎯🎯 pic.twitter.com/LoWkTDsnz4

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) February 12, 2021

Lawrence will now undergo surgery on that injured labrum, a setback that’s rumored to keep him sidelined for up to five months. That guarantees the Tigers prospect won’t be fit when the Draft takes place, and a lot can happen between now and decision time:

Trevor Lawrence just told Rece Davis that he’s expecting a 4-5 month rehab until he’ll be fully cleared.. Surgery on his left shoulder is tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/uuDxhDRoma

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) February 12, 2021

New Jaguars coach Urban Meyer has had nothing but good things to say about Lawrence for some time now, and his reviews only appeared more glowing after his pro day display. Meyer told the NFL Network’s Jane Slater that Lawrence’s motivation to have a pro day despite his injury is indicative of “a guy that loves football and is confident in his ability.”

The two parties seem like a match made in heaven given Jacksonville are just about certain to move for a new quarterback. That being said, Lawrence’s favoritism in the odds does open up the potential for an even greater upset, and Alabama’s Mac Jones is the most valuable pick to make a surprise storm to the top among those QBs sitting just below the obvious candidate.

Jones represents a big shift in style compared to some of the other top quarterback selections entering the 2021 NFL Draft in that he offers next to no rushing presence. That being said, his arm and vision were almost unrivalled as he threw 41 touchdowns and four interceptions in 13 appearances his junior season:

The SEC standout has been called an even better QB than his Alabama predecessor, Tua Tagovailoa, who was very much in the No. 1 pick conversation last year before Joe Burrow went to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Admittedly, it’s difficult to see the Jaguars budging from Lawrence with a little more than two months to go before the Draft, but +15000 Jones is a step in a different direction who’s our favorite to cause an upset should Jacksonville (for some reason) look elsewhere.

Prediction: Trevor Lawrence drafted No. 1 overall (-3335)

Sleeper Pick: Mac Jones (+15000)

2021 NFL Draft: Odds Favorites