Table of Contents

2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Odds: NASCAR Cup Series Predictions and Sleeper Picks In Play

Author: americangambler | Last Updated: February 23, 2021

The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series has not gone to script early on in 2021 following two surprise winners in the first two races of the season. The underdogs seek another upset this Sunday (February 28) in the Dixie Vodka 400, the last race to held in Miami before the schedule moves on.

Michael McDowell scored a turn-up for the books after clinching first place in the season-opening Daytona 500, and Christopher Bell kept the shocks coming with his win at the O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 last weekend.

Kevin Harvick won the 2014 edition of the Dixie Vodka 400, and the 45-year-old veteran—currently third in the standings—is the leading choice to reclaim his throne at +450 moneyline odds, per Unibet NJ. However, +500 Denny Hamlin looks the safer bet among the favorites considering he triumphed here last year and is close becoming the first driver to win this race on four separate occasions:

Hamlin is still searching for his first win this season but has been in emphatic form nonetheless. The No. 11 for Joe Gibbs Racing finished fifth at the Daytona despite leading for the most laps, while he’s won Stage 1 in both races held to date this year. Those performances are enough to suggest it’s only a matter of time before he crosses the line first, and where better than with a record-breaking shift in Miami?

Date: Sunday, February 28

Time: 3:30 p.m. ET

Venue: Homestead-Miami Speedway, Miami, Florida

Laps: 267 (400.5 miles)

TV Info: FOX

NASCAR Cup Series 2021 Predictions

A second-place finish in the Auto Parts 253 was enough to propel Joey Logano to second in the standings having settled for 12th in the season-opener. The Team Penske star won this race in 2018 and has placed sixth or higher in five of his last six outings at Homestead, which is enough to gauge some confidence he’ll have a chance at outperforming his +1000 price.

Logano would have turned in a far better result at the Daytone 500 were it not for a final-lap fight against team-mate Brad Keselowski, with the 2018 champion hoping to recapture his best:

However, this season’s win list so far hasn’t been about the usual suspects, so it would only be right to consider someone on the outside for another turn-up this Sunday. 

In that vein, Homestead holds happy memories for Austin Dillon in that it was the venue where he secured the 2013 NASCAR Nationwide Series Championship (despite finishing 12th on the day). The Richard Childress representative has only three race wins in seven seasons as a starting driver. There’s good cause to rally behind +2500 Dillon considering his results at Homestead have shown improvement year-on-year, culminating in last season’s run to seventh after he placed eighth the campaign prior.

Admittedly, confidence may not be sky high after finishing 34th last time out, but his last-gasp lunge to win the second segment of the Bluegreen Vacations Duels showed incisive winning nous:

There are far more fashionable names in the lineup, for sure, but a return to the longer-distance format holds a lot of promise for the No. 3 with a good history of results on this track.

Prediction: Denny Hamlin to win (+500)

Outside Pick: Joey Logano (+1000)

Dark Horse: Austin Dillon (+2500)

2021 Dixie Vodka 400 Odds Leaders


Winner Odds

Kevin Harvick


Denny Hamlin


Martin Truex Jr.


Kyle Busch


Chase Elliott


Joey Logano


Brad Keselowski


Kyle Larson


Ryan Blaney


Christopher Bell



Odds via Unibet NJ