There are as many theories about National Football League (NFL) betting as there are fans of the game. But there are a few strategies that people have found useful. In 2018, the teams that were at the top of the NFL standings, such as the Super Bowl 53 champion New England Patriots, Super Bowl runner-up Los Angeles Rams, the New Orleans Saints, and the Kansas City Chiefs, led the offensive explosion. The 2018 season was the highest scoring season in NFL history, which means that over betting could be one way to win money, and not have to worry about the point spread or money line bets. Of course, after all the offensive fireworks during the season, the Super Bowl (13-3 win for the Patriots) was the lowest scoring in history.
With point spread (a forecast of the number of points by which a stronger team is expected to defeat a weaker one) betting , many people like to find games where the favored team is less than a one-touchdown (-7) favorite.
But some will say that betting on underdogs at home is the best way to go. In 2018, home underdogs went 40-39 (with two pushes), but teams with winning records were 10-4 in that situation. If you include teams just below .500 as well, the record was 25-9 for home dogs.
Some of the better ways to neutralize the high money lines would be to put two or three big favorites into a parlay. NFL favorites in 2018 went 175-90-2 straight up (with the money line, ie. no point spread), good for a 66.04 winning percentage. That percentage went up to 69 when you bet home favorites (123-55), by far better odds than betting any of the spread lines.