This is the million dollar (or pound, or euro) question that gamblers have been asking for as long as betting has been available. Betting is not an exact science, but there are ways to find an advantage.
Betting on the National Football League (NFL) drives American gambling, and in many ways is very unique to the sport. But because it is such a big deal, there is more information available about each NFL game than there is about any other sport.
The NFL draft (which in 2019 runs from April 25-27, and is usually in late April) is the first place to find out whether teams are going to improve for the upcoming season. Over the next three months, before preseason training camps begin, there will be much written and spoken about the new season. This is a great opportunity to do some research.
There are some great podcasts (sportshandle.com/sports-betting-podcasts-worth-your-time) and websites (NFL.com, ESPN.com) that will allow any potential NFL bettor an opportunity to soak up as much knowledge as possible.
Some of the better ways to neutralize the high money lines would be to put two or three big favorites into a parlay. NFL favorites in 2018 went 175-90-2, good for a 66.04 winning percentage. That percentage went up to 69 when you bet home favorites (123-55), by far better odds than betting any of the spread lines.
Once the season starts, there are usually some teams that fans have overrated, and some that are underrated. So early in the season, there are possibilities to find an advantage on certain teams. The odds usually start to adjust as injuries, suspensions, and other factors start to change what teams look like during the season. But with point spreads (a forecast of the number of points by which a stronger team is expected to defeat a weaker one) on each game, much like the goal line spreads for UEFA matches, underdogs can be worth a bet.
Many times, the best bet in a specific game may not be on one team or the other, but on the over/under amount of points scored. With the new rules that favor the offensive side of the football, there are opportunities to win there as well.