Fading The Public In Sports Betting: Why The Public Will Overvalue Favorites

public betting

Everyone knows a contrarian. It’s that guy in the meeting at the office who will gleefully interject with an immediate reason why a new idea is destined to fail. You comment on the beauty of a sunny day and he instantly points out that the skies were blue on 9/11.

In most cases, the contrarian is best left to their own devices. Following their path in life is not an advisable gameplan if happiness is your endgame.

Except when it comes to sports betting, that is. Taking a contrarian approach here can often prove a wise approach.

The public loves popular teams. Think the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys in the NFL, or the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in MLB. Likewise, there’s always going to be plenty of NBA action on the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics and in the NHL on the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens.

In college sports, Notre Dame in football and Duke and Kentucky in basketball will sometimes draw more action than is warranted.

As a contrarian, your job is to track the betting lines on these teams through your favorite mobile sports betting app, whether that be FanDuel, William Hill, BetMGM or DraftKings, and identify the games in which the public is overvaluing these teams as favorites when they clearly shouldn’t be the chalk.

In betting terminology, this is often referred to as fading the public.

What is “fading the public in betting”?

It’s capitalizing on situations where bettors have turned a wagering line into a popularity contest. By taking the analytical approach to these wagers, you can capitalize and cash in a winner that will pay off handsomely.

The fact of the matter is that the public is wrong more than they’re right. If that wasn’t the case, a lot more people would be making a living by betting on sports and online sportsbooks wouldn’t keep expanding into new markets.

Is it a good strategy to bet against the public?

This formula won’t work every time. For example, fading the public on Notre Dame when the Fighting Irish are playing Stanford is probably a bad strategy. On the other hand, fading the public betting on Michigan football would’ve made you a lot of money. That could be a good strategy.

By being a discerning contrarian and recognizing when the public is backing a team based on gut instincts or emotion when in reality, their chances of success are remote, is a betting method that can prove quite profitable.


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