This past week in US politics the Republican campaign lost some footing in the potential re-election of President Donald Trump. White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced she is stepping down from the Trump administration at the end of the month in a shocking twist after it had been over 90 days since she last daily press briefing.
With President Trump kicking off his re-election campaign, you may be wise to check out the odds for the 2020 presidency race.
The man currently resident in the White House is hot favourite to make it ‘four more years’, but his odds will depend upon who the Democrats pick to take him on.
Whether they can discover an opponent who can energise the US voting public enough to oust ‘The Donald’ seems unlikely, but a lot can happen before the election really starts.
You may think betting on politics is no way to win money, but in a turbulent world surprises in the political sphere are more regular than you may think.
Political Betting History
Political betting goes back around 200 years in the US, with organized markets for betting on presidential elections recorded as early as the 1860s. Over $165m was wagered in the 1916 election and betting activity at times dominated transactions in the stock exchanges on Wall Street.
The markets proved an accurate way of predicting election results before the introduction of opinion polls in the mid-1930s; after this, the intensity of political betting diminished as gamblers found other markets to bet on.
Betting on political outcomes used to be considered illegal in the US under federal and most state laws. However, the decision to shut down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, PASPA, in 2018 opened up the prospect of legalized betting on all markets.
It may have become unfashionable in the US, but political betting remains very popular across the world – the British particularly keen bettors on their own elections and the American’s.
With seemingly every Democratic senator under the sun ready to throw his or her hat in the ring for 2020, there is sure to be value in an outsider making it through to the face-to-face fight with President Trump.
The early indicators were that former vice-president Joe Biden would be the front runner for the Democratic nomination; many pundits predicting a fight of the 70-somethings with veteran of the 2016 campaign Bernie Sanders.
But the star of the early Democratic TV debates was Kamala Harris, the California senator taking the fight to Biden.
She is trading at around 7.0, or 6/1, with Biden at 8.0, Massachusetts senator, Elizabeth Warren, at 9.0, and Sanders at 15.0 to become the 45th American President. But they’ll all have to perform impressively over the next 12 months to challenge Trump, the incumbent currently trading at 2.0, or evens.
If you’re looking at who’ll win the Democratic nomination Harris is 4.0 and Biden 5.5.
US Politics Betting
With the US presidential race, the two main bets are the outright winner and also the popular vote bet. Last time round Trump won the presidency but Hillary Clinton won the popular vote.
Closer to the actual election there will also be odds on specific states; markets that are always worth keeping an eye on. Check out polling in particular states where, e.g., a major business may have folded leading to big job losses, or financial investment has been secured for a major development. States that have not received the boost that was promised four years ago may turn against Trump, and some may turn towards the president after seeing a notable upward economic turn.
Betting sites may also offer quirky bets on the presidential debates like how many times Trump may use a particular phrase, like ‘Keep America Great’.
In-play betting is growing increasingly popular and some gambling sites will offer political odds after voting has started. In-play betting will allow you to see how the election develops before making your selection. In-play betting is becoming more available in the US with states lining up to follow the likes of New Jersey, Delaware, Montana and Pennsylvania to offer the service.
Away from the US, Britain is in the midst of a political whirlwind thanks to their current Brexit problems. The public voted in favour of leaving the European Union economic grouping, the ramifications causing major political turmoil.
A general election could occur at any time and a party that wasn’t in existence a few months ago is riding high in the polls. President Trump’s pal Nigel Farage is the leader of the Brexit Party and they are trading at 8.0 to win most seats at the next British General Election.
At the moment you cannot bet on the US politics from the United States as no sportsbooks offer gambling markets and odds yet.